Leadership Lessons from History: What Can Alliances Between Powerful Autocrats Bring in the Long Term?

Are we witnessing a shift in global power dynamics? The recent blossoming of a relationship between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump has sparked heated debates about its long-term implications. To gain perspective on current events, I turned to history, where we find several examples of alliances between powerful autocrats. What can we learn from these past partnerships?

The WWII Axis Powers: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Losses

One of the most notable alliances in modern history was that of the Axis Powers during World War II, which included Germany, Italy, and Japan. This pact, formed between authoritarian leaders, ultimately plunged the world into a devastating global conflict that caused millions of deaths. After five years of warfare, the Axis Powers were defeated, and their alliance dissolved under the weight of their mutual contradictions and aggressive ambitions.

Ancient Alliances: Temporary Unity, Lasting Consequences

Looking further back, we can trace such opportunistic alliances across history. Take the Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE), where Sparta and Persia formed an unlikely alliance to defeat Athens and its allies. While this partnership led to short-term victories, it ultimately shifted power dynamics and fueled further conflict.

In the Middle Ages, the Crusades (1096–1291) saw another example of temporary alliances between rivals. Richard the Lionheart of England and Philip II of France united during the Third Crusade (1189–1192) to reclaim Jerusalem from Saladin. Their cooperation was short-lived, as personal rivalries and differing objectives caused the alliance to unravel.

The Renaissance period (1494–1559) also saw shifting allegiances during the Italian Wars, where France and the Ottoman Empire joined forces against the Holy Roman Empire and Spain. King Francis I of France sought the support of Ottoman Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent to counter the Habsburgs’ dominance. Again, the alliance was marked by political instability and failed to deliver lasting peace or stability.

The Putin-Trump Alliance: A Modern-Day Question

Fast forward to today, and we see another complex alliance taking shape: that between Putin and Trump. Their potential partnership has raised alarm bells among European leaders and analysts, who worry about its implications for U.S. foreign policy, Ukraine, and Europe’s security arrangements. In recent years, some European leaders, like Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Slovakia’s leadership, have aligned themselves more with Putin’s worldview than with the European Union’s ideals.

The question remains: Can this alliance, based on convenience and shared interests, stand the test of time? Historically, alliances between powerful autocrats have often led to early territorial gains or political victories, but they rarely endure. The conflicting interests and egos involved usually lead to their eventual collapse.

The Long-Term Lesson: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Instability

History shows us that alliances of convenience may bring short-term successes, but they often lack the foundation needed for lasting peace and stability. The most enduring alliances in history have been those rooted in mutual respect, shared values, and long-term cooperation. The lesson seems clear: While autocratic alliances can offer immediate advantages, their inherent instability often leads to their downfall.

A New Potential Winner: The Europe-China Alliance

Looking to the future, a new and unexpected possibility arises: Could Europe form a long-term alliance with China? This potential partnership could reshape global politics in profound ways. Such an alliance could bring significant benefits in areas like economic strength, technological collaboration, geopolitical balance, and infrastructure development.

The combined economic power of Europe and China could create a formidable bloc, influencing global markets and trade policies. Europe’s involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative could enhance connectivity across Eurasia, while collaboration in technological advancements and research could spark innovation in various industries.

However, this partnership would not come without challenges. Europe would need to carefully navigate human rights concerns in China and balance its relationships with other global powers, including the U.S. and Russia.

A Complex and Fluid Global Landscape

History has shown us that global alliances — especially those between autocratic leaders — are never straightforward. They are fluid, often shifting in response to changing circumstances and mutual interests. The future of international relations remains uncertain, and the evolution of these alliances will likely continue to surprise us.

As we look ahead, it’s clear that the dynamics of global power are continually shifting. Whether it’s the Putin-Trump relationship or a potential Europe-China partnership, the alliances of the future will need to be carefully scrutinized, as their impact could last for generations.